Natural Fluctuation

Likely to remain trapped between 'channel' resistance and pivotal support at 88.00 for the rest of this month. Random moves will probably become ever smaller, fading ahead of targets, as the yen looks for intermediate and long term direction. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles starting... […]

Technical analysis gives us a bullish momentum in the market and the euro may start an uptrend after a break of standard error channel upper line. MACD crosses the signal line upwards; RSI is in a clear uptrend and Bollinger Band gives us a bullish signal. […]

Following recent stabilisation in EUR/USD, speculative investors have trimmed short EUR positions marginally. However, at above 30% of open interest, EUR shorts remain an upside risk on EUR/USD. […]

The University of Michigan's (UMI) preliminary consumer sentiment for February declined slightly from 74.4 to 73.6. Despite the unfavourable weather conditions, the current assessment was slightly higher than in January, but expectations fell back. So far the outlook for March has been mixed: gasoline prices, which declined in the course... […]

The British may be obsessed with the weather, but unusually cold conditions in January certainly affected some highfrequency economic indicators, weighing on UK retail sales and mortgage approvals. However, the arctic weather is likely to have supported January industrial production, due this week, via a boost to utilities output, while... […]

As we and the market expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and reiterated the stance to 'removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010'. The quarterly MPS also revealed modest upgrades in 2011 GDP growth and inflation. However, potential GDP growth in 2010 has been revised downward.... […]

Despite intra-day fall to 1.4873, as cable has recovered after holding above indicated minor support at 1.4855, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5035) would be seen, however, renewed selling should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5053) and bring another... […]

Despite intra-day rebound to 1.0795, as dollar has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.0810 and downside bias remains for weakness to 1.0676 and then test of strong support at 1.0647-48, however, break there is needed to confirm top has been formed earlier at 1.0899 and bring retracement of recent... […]

Despite intra-day retreat to 1.3544, as the single currency has rebounded after holding above support at 1.3530, suggesting further consolidation would take place above there and gain towards resistance at 1.3736 would be seen, however, above there is needed to signal an upside break of recent 1.3530-1.3736 range and bring... […]

Current break of resistance at 90.69 confirms the rise from 88.14 has resumed and further gain to 91.45/50 would be seen, however, reckon resistance at 92.16 would hold from here and near term overbought condition would limit upside and risk from there is seen for a retreat later this week.... […]

EUR/JPY's strong recovery and break of 122.78 minor resistance dampens the immediate bearish case and indicates that consolidations from 119.64 is still in progress. Stronger rise could now be seen to 123.89 and above. But after all, we'd upside to be limited by 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36... […]

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for a test on 0.9137 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 0.8601 has resumed and should target trend line resistance at 0.9213 next. On the downside, 0.9045 minor support will delay the bullish case and suggests that consolidation from... […]

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.3530 minor support intact, EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.3443 is possibly still in progress. Nevertheless, even in case of another rise, upside is still expected to be limited by 1.3852 resistance to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3530 minor support will flip... […]

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Recovery from 1.4783 might have completed at 1.5194 already after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. Further fall should be seen to retest 1.4783 low first. Break there will confirm fall resumption and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to... […]

With 1.0809 minor resistance intact, consolidations from 1.0897 is still in progress and another fall might be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0608 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0131 to 1.0897 at 1.0604) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0809 minor resistance will flip... […]