First Breath

Likely to remain trapped between 'channel' resistance and pivotal support at 88.00 for the rest of this month. Random moves will probably become ever smaller, fading ahead of targets, as the yen looks for intermediate and long term direction. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles starting... […]

Technical analysis gives us a bullish momentum in the market and the euro may start an uptrend after a break of standard error channel upper line. MACD crosses the signal line upwards; RSI is in a clear uptrend and Bollinger Band gives us a bullish signal. […]

Following recent stabilisation in EUR/USD, speculative investors have trimmed short EUR positions marginally. However, at above 30% of open interest, EUR shorts remain an upside risk on EUR/USD. […]

The University of Michigan's (UMI) preliminary consumer sentiment for February declined slightly from 74.4 to 73.6. Despite the unfavourable weather conditions, the current assessment was slightly higher than in January, but expectations fell back. So far the outlook for March has been mixed: gasoline prices, which declined in the course... […]

The British may be obsessed with the weather, but unusually cold conditions in January certainly affected some highfrequency economic indicators, weighing on UK retail sales and mortgage approvals. However, the arctic weather is likely to have supported January industrial production, due this week, via a boost to utilities output, while... […]

Although the British pound fell to indicated downside target at 1.4940 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4781 to 1.5197), as cable has recovered from 1.4936, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and rebound to the convergence of the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen (now both at 1.5066) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed... […]

Although dollar retreated after intra-day anticipated rebound to 1.0805, as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0730) holds, marginal rise to 1.0840/50 cannot be ruled out, however, we are keeping our view that temporary top has been formed at 1.0899, upside would be limited and bring another retreat later. Below... […]

Euro’s intra-day fall to 1.3537 adds credence to our view that further choppy trading would take place and although price has recovered after holding above indicated support at 1.3530, as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3633) holds, mild downside bias is seen for the fall from 1.3736 to extend... […]

Dollar’s intra-day retreat to 89.63 reinforces our view that rebound from 88.14 has formed a top at 90.69 and further consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 89.41) is still possible but renewed buying interest should emerge around 89.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 88.14 to 90.69)... […]

As discussed before, GBP/JPY's recovery from 132.13 might have completed at 137.33 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for retesting 132.13 first. Break will confirm fall resumption to 61.8% projection of 143.59 to 132.13 from 137.33 at 130.24 next. On the upside, above 135.69 minor resistance will delay... […]

As noted before, EUR/JPY's recovery from 119.64 might have finished at 123.89 already. Intraday bias remains on cautiously on the downside for retesting 119.64 first. Break there will confirm fall resumption and should target 161.8% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 115.60 next. On the upside, above 122.78... […]

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.3443 could still continue. But even in case of another rise, upside is still expected to be limited by 1.3852 resistance to conclude the consolidation from 1.3443 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3530 minor support will flip intraday bias... […]

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for moment and consolidations from 1.0897 might still continue. Nevertheless, even in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0608 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0131 to 1.0897 at 1.0604) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0809 minor... […]

With an intraday top in place at 90.68, bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 90.68 will suggest rise resumption towards near term falling trend line (now at 91.57). On the downside, note that further break of 89.19 will argue that rebound from 88.13 is over and will flip intraday... […]

GBP/USD's break of 1.4992 minor support indicates that recovery from 1.4783 has completed at 1.5194 already, after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Break of 1.4783 will confirm fall resumption and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364... […]