Commercial Affairs

Likely to remain trapped between 'channel' resistance and pivotal support at 88.00 for the rest of this month. Random moves will probably become ever smaller, fading ahead of targets, as the yen looks for intermediate and long term direction. Note that the Lagging Span encounters resistance from the candles starting... […]

Technical analysis gives us a bullish momentum in the market and the euro may start an uptrend after a break of standard error channel upper line. MACD crosses the signal line upwards; RSI is in a clear uptrend and Bollinger Band gives us a bullish signal. […]

Following recent stabilisation in EUR/USD, speculative investors have trimmed short EUR positions marginally. However, at above 30% of open interest, EUR shorts remain an upside risk on EUR/USD. […]

The University of Michigan's (UMI) preliminary consumer sentiment for February declined slightly from 74.4 to 73.6. Despite the unfavourable weather conditions, the current assessment was slightly higher than in January, but expectations fell back. So far the outlook for March has been mixed: gasoline prices, which declined in the course... […]

The British may be obsessed with the weather, but unusually cold conditions in January certainly affected some highfrequency economic indicators, weighing on UK retail sales and mortgage approvals. However, the arctic weather is likely to have supported January industrial production, due this week, via a boost to utilities output, while... […]

As expected, the SNB left the 3-month LIBOR target range unchanged at 0.00-0.75% and intended to keep the lower part of the target range at around 0.25%. The SNB also reiterated the stance to act 'decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro'. In light... […]

Although the British pound retreated after intra-day rise to 1.5065, as long as the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.4969) holds, near term upside risk is seen for another corrective rise and above said resistance would bring stronger rebound to 1.5100, however, 1.5180-97 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and previous... […]

Despite intra-day fall to 1.0683, as dollar has recovered after holding above this week’s low at 1.0676, suggesting further consolidation within 1.0648-1.0810 range would take place and rebound to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0769) cannot be ruled out, however, indicated upper range should continue to hold, bring another... […]

Despite intra-day marginal rise to 1.3688 (yesterday’s high was 1.3680), lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there reinforce our view that further consolidation within recent range of 1.3530-1.3736 would take place and weakness towards the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3586) is likely, however, renewed buying interest... […]

Despite intra-day rebound to 90.72, as dollar has retreated after faltering below yesterday’s high of 90.83, suggesting further consolidation would take place and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.07) would bring retracement towards 89.63-72 (previous support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), however, renewed buying interest should emerge... […]

EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidations and sideway trading from 1.3443 might continue further. Another rise cannot be ruled out but upside is still expected to be limited by 1.3852 resistance to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3530 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the... […]

As noted before, GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.4783 is possibly still in progress and another rise could be seen to 1.5194 and above. But still, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 and bring fall resumption. on the downside, break of 1.4783 will confirm that... […]

While upside momentum is a bit unconvincing, USD/JPY's rise from 88.13 is still in favor to continue with 89.62 minor support intact, towards near term falling trend line (now at 91.40). On the downside, however, break of 89.62 will argue that rebound from 88.13 is over and will flip intraday... […]

USD/CHF dips to 1.0723 today but recovers in early US session. Consolidation from 1.0897 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out with 1.0809 minor resistance intact. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.0608 cluster support (38.2% retracement... […]

Swiss Franc is mildly lower after SNB left three-month Libor target unchanged at 0.25 and reiterated its stance to"prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro," which would "result in an undesired tightening of monetary conditions." Reactions to the announcement is mild so far. EUR/CHF spikes higher to... […]